Table A1.

Parameters for the GEV (Eqn 1) for the plateau portion of the historical record for US Triple Crown races

Plateau beginsProbabilityabc
Kentucky Derby1949>0.882–0.282616.40770.1577
Preakness Stakes1971>0.867–0.439016.59700.1392
Belmont Stakes1973>0.232–0.200416.21690.1631
  • GEV, generalized extreme value; a, shape parameter; b, location parameter; and c, scale parameter (see Eqn 1). All values for a are significantly less than 0 (P<0.05). The probability cited here is the likelihood that any calculated correlation between speed and year is due to chance alone