Plateau begins | Probability | a | b | c | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kentucky Derby | 1949 | >0.882 | –0.2826 | 16.4077 | 0.1577 |
Preakness Stakes | 1971 | >0.867 | –0.4390 | 16.5970 | 0.1392 |
Belmont Stakes | 1973 | >0.232 | –0.2004 | 16.2169 | 0.1631 |
GEV, generalized extreme value; a, shape parameter; b, location parameter; and c, scale parameter (see Eqn 1). All values for a are significantly less than 0 (P<0.05). The probability cited here is the likelihood that any calculated correlation between speed and year is due to chance alone