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Fig. 1. Modelling kidnapping behaviour with a multi-state approach in the emperor
penguin. States 1 and 2 are, respectively, the non-kidnapping state and the
kidnapping state.
ab is the transition probability from state
a to state b over one post treatment day (t) to the next one
(t+1).
12 is the probability that a penguin will
kidnap a chick from t to t+1. (1S) is the
probability that a bird will leave the colony from t to t+1.
P and (1P) are, respectively, the probabilities that
a bird present on the colony in one of the behavioural state was seen or not
during the daily scan.